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“Part of this slowdown could be a function of growth pull forward into 2020 and promo roll-offs, but we believe it could be due to structural factors capping growth,” Venkateshwar wrote.
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On Tuesday, Barclays Group media analyst Kannan Venkateshwar lowered his rating on Disney to “Equal Weight” from “Overweight,” adding in a research note that the slowdown in subscribers is happening even as Disney has launched new franchise titles and day-and-date movie releases and Star Plus sports content in Europe and Latin America. Some See Structural Issuesīut though Nathanson is optimistic that Disney Plus will reach its targets, other analysts aren’t so sure. According to Nathanson’s estimates, Hotstar Plus will account for about 47% of total Disney Plus subscribers by 2024.
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To date, between 30% and 40% of Disney Plus’s annual subscriber growth has come from Disney‘s Hotstar Plus service in India. But a lot of that will depend on how successful the service is in attracting customers outside the U.S. Nathanson predicted Disney Plus would have about 245 million global subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024. In fiscal Q4, MoffettNathanson media analyst Michael Nathanson estimates that Disney Plus will add about 2 million subscribers, its lowest total since its inception. That led some analysts to rethink their outlook on Disney as the entertainment giant searches for ways to boost growth. Two years after that much-ballyhooed launch, the Disney Plus juggernaut has started to hit the brakes, adding about 42.3 million global subscribers over the past three quarters, compared to 57.5 million additions in the same period in 2020. Analysts and Disney executives all cheered at the astounding success of the product, especially since Disney didn’t seem to be spending a whole lot on additional content to attract that audience. That marked a big fall off from previous quarters - it added 12.4 million in fiscal Q3 and 21.2 million in fiscal Q1 - and spooked investors who saw it as a sign that the subscriber growth train was grinding down.ĭisney Plus launched in November 2019 and quickly became the gold standard for streamers, signing on 10 million users in its first day and passing 100 million paid customers just 18 months into its existence. 17, when it closed at $183.47 per share, just before CEO Bob Chapek said at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference that Disney Plus additions would be in the “low single-digit millions” in fiscal Q4, which ends Sept. 19, up 4 cents from the day before, but the stock has been on a downward slope since Sept.